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New York Redistricting Update
Bad?  Good?  'Meh?'  Moot?

Redistricting was once again in the news on February 26 as Democrats in the state legislature issued a counter-proposal to a redistricting map proposed on February 15 by the Independent Redistricting Committee.   

Democrats across the nation had high hopes that New York Dems would pick up at least 3 or 4 and maybe up to 5 or 6 congressional districts with the map proposed by the IRC.  But in the downstate area, the Independent Committee's map only tweaked the districts of Marc Molinaro (R) and Pat Ryan (D) to make a flip in either district less likely.  Upstate, meanwhile, the IRC plan made minor changes to District 22, east of Syracuse, making it more likely that Democrats can unseat Brandon Williams (R), who won by less than 1% in 2022.  So overall, the new map resulted in a likely Democratic gain of only 1 district.  

New York Dems in the legislature quickly rejected the IRC plan, and quickly drew up a counter-proposal.  There was some worry that once again the Dems would be overly ambitious and create a map that could easily be challenged in court by Republicans.  News reports, however, including this one from Associated Press, indicate that the Democrats acted with greater prudence this time, only tweaking the IRC map slightly.  Their proposed map slightly favors Democrats in just a few downstate suburban areas.  Notably, the Queens-Nassau County district recently won by Tom Suozzi would likely be safer for Democrats.  As well, the Dems want to undo the changes made to Marc Molinaro's district by the IRC to very modestly improve Democratic chances there.  

The NY legislature is expected to pass the Democrats' redistricting plan by March 1, assuming Gov. Hochul is on board.  There have been murmurs of a legal challenge by Republicans, like the one that resulted in a court-appointed special master who imposed the map that led to a 5 seat gain by Republican Representatives in 2022 after the Democratic legislature was over-ambitious in its plan to create .  But several non-partisan groups that support fair redistricting have said the Dem's map is fair and a model of restraint.  And Republican Minority Leader Will Barclay said yesterday that he thought the “maps” are pretty fair.  

Still, Dems are taking precautions against a legal challenge, by hurriedly passing a bill that would limit where Republicans could file a suit in order to keep the GOP from court-shopping for a favorable venue.  

The view of most political strategists across the country is that Democrats have an excellent chance to take control of the HOR in the 2024 elections, and the addition of even a couple of Democratic New York Representatives would be very helpful.  Control of the House is by no means  a foregone conclusion, however, in part due to the gerrymandered new districts in North Carolina, which will almost certainly result in a loss of 3 seats.  

Stay tuned … 

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